What Are the Chances ?

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Over the past few weeks , we saw many surveys re: which political party will win how many Lok Sabha seats

These included , Times Now-ORG / CNN-IBN-CSDS / Headlines Today – Cicero / ABP News-Nielsen / News 24 – Today’s Chanakya / Cvoter – India TV etc

Although , ” Today’s Chanakya ” came closest to predicting the number of seats that NDA might win , others too were fairly accurate

Using statistical techniques , they computed the Chance ( Probability ) for each party , based on asking a few thousands voters ( sample ) , their preferences

Now is the time to survey the voters , once again , as to what do they believe , when it comes to BJP fulfilling its poll promises

For each item ( of BJP’s poll manifesto ) , what is the perceived chance ( probability ) that the BJP Government will fulfill / deliver on its promises ? Will it be 10 % – 50 % – 100 %  ?

The outcome will determine BJP’s credibility among voters , vis-a-vis , its poll promises

It may be even an eye-opener for BJP  !

If conducted and results published by end June 2014 , such a survey might even become a ” Self Fulfilling Prophesy ”  !

If it turns out less-than-flattering , BJP will work twice as hard to prove the pollsters wrong  !

Here are the ” Chances ” which I attach to fulfillment of each of BJP’s following poll promises , by the end of 3rd year :

*  Ensure minimization of Black Money and setting up of a Task Force  .. ( 50 % )

*  Special Courts to stop hoarding and black-marketing. ( 100 %)

*  Set-up a Price-Stabilization Fund…….( 100 % )

*  Develop labour-intensive Manufacturing …  (  10 %  )

*  Empowering youth for Self-Employment…  ( 25 % )

*  Transforming Employment Exchanges to Career Centers(10% )

*  Eliminating corruption thru E-Governance… ( 10 % )

*  Rationalization / Simplification of Tax-regime.. ( 20 % )

*  Insulate intelligence agencies from political intervention and interference(10%)

*  Strengthening physical infrastructure with expediting work on freight and Industrial Corridors….. ( 15 % )

*  Setting up Gas-Grids and National Optical Fiber Network up to the village level…….  (  30 %  )

*  Quadrilateral project for Bullet Trains….. (  5  %  )

*  Establishment of National E – Library…..  (  40  %  )

*  Implementation of National Education Policy .. ( 50 % )

*  Evolving further the PPP model to PPPP model .. ( 50 % )

*  Building 100 Mega-Cities…………….  (  0  %  )

Did I miss out any  ?

Parallel with whatever the Pollsters may – or may not – do , it would be worthwhile for BJP Tech-Team , to come out with a mobile App ( to be named , ” RUN – Rate Us Now ” ? ), to find out what voters feel , on a 5 star scale Or , an App that would let the voters prioritize among various promises

*  hemen  parekh  (  19 May 2014 / Mumbai  )

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White Holes of Black Money ?

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Astrophysicists say , even light cannot escape a black hole

Closer at home in India , even the most stringent laws have not stopped the Indians from siphoning out their undeclared income to secret bank accounts in 40 odd Tax-Haven nations – the White Holes of Black Money  !

Depending upon your source , the amount varies from Rs 25 lakh Crores to Rs 90 lakh Crores

The exact / actual amount is itself , irrelevant

What matters is :

*  In those foreign banks , there are lakhs of ” Secret / Password-protected ” bank accounts , belonging to Indians

*   Those countries are refusing to divulge these accounts to Indian Government, under some or other International Law / Convention

*   India has no extra-judicial influence over these countries to force them

*   Economies of these countries do not depend upon trade with India

These economies depend upon those secret accounts  !

Of late , some people have suggested passing yet another law to declare all such black monies, illegally stashed abroad , as ” National Property ”

Sure  !  Can be passed in BJP controlled Lok Sabha in 4 hours  !

Like all previous laws , that won’t make any difference

In the meantime , let SIT debate and deliberate and dither , for ever  !

No harm in persevering , even as those Rs 90 lakh Crores become Rs 900 lakh Crores  !

Do our Politicians /  Babus /  Janata , realize that the only persons who can – and will – bring back those black monies , are those account holders  ?

Do we realize that human greed is cleverer than those laws  ?

Do we understand that no one wants to pay increasing amount of Income Tax , with each higher slab  ?

Do we appreciate that our present taxation system ( of higher tax rates , with rising income ) , prevents people from declaring all of their incomes ?

Why work harder to earn higher income , only to hand over that income to government – who will distribute it , by way of salaries to the bureaucracy ?

Do we know that our present Tax Regime penalizes honest tax payers and discourages wealth – creation  ?

Do we understand that this Tax Regime , diverts funds into unproductive assets ( eg: Land / Gold etc ) – funds , which are badly needed for nation-building  ?

Will  Mr Arun Jaitly  have courage to implement following  ?

*  INVERSE  TAXATION   REGIME

Where one pays DECREASING , incremental  tax , with each higher slab of     income. This will encourage full declaration of all income and remove     incentive to hide income . People will insist upon receiving all payments by cheques .

” Reverse  Hawaala ” system ( converting black money to white money ) will , soon eliminate parallel economy  !

*  AMNESTY  SCHEME

Where no questions will be asked as to the source of declared black money , if that money is invested in Government-Approved Infrastructure SPVs . Dividends / interests from such investments will be free from Income Tax for 15 years . Infrastructure should also include , Education,Health-care ,Sanitation etc

Dear  Narendrabhai ,

Applying this ( mildly  ” Out -of – Box ” ) thinking , you can raise Rs 1000 Lakh Crores , and build those 100 Mega-Cities and create those 100 million jobs

*   hemen   parekh   (   04 June 2014 / Mumbai  )

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If Mohamed cannot go to Mountain

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There is an old saying:

” If Mohamed cannot go to Mountain , let Mountain go to Mohamed ”

In today’s internet era , an equivalent would be :

” If people cannot go to where jobs are , let jobs go to where people live ”

Remember , in 2015 , it is much easier / cheaper to import ” digital service ” based jobs into India , then to export people to foreign countries , where they will face a lot of resistance / animosity from local citizens

Examples :

Call Canters  /  BPO  /  RPO  / LPO  /  KPO ….any PO ( Process Outsourcing )

May be this is what was in the mind of Shri Ravi Shankar Prasad ( Minister for Communication and Information Technology ) , when he proposed setting up of 480 Call Centers ( @ 100 seats each )

As per Minister ,

>  These will be set up in smaller towns

>  These will be distributed State-Population wise

>  Union Government will give Rs 1 lakh subsidy per seat

>  Established Company will hand-hold a local entrepreneur for setting up    the Call Center

>  Local entity can be an agency ,society ,individual ,partnership ,Company

>  State Governments will need to provide electricity / security

>  Center will soon issue call for expression of interest

But with 100 persons working in each shift , that would generate employment for only ,

480*100*3 = 1,44,000  youth

And we have 12 million people joining our work force every year  !

Can we find ways to generate in small towns , millions of jobs for 3.5 million students graduating from our colleges , each year ?

It is possible , with following  ” OUT OF THE BOX ” thinking :

#   SPACE

India boasts of over 1.3 million schools . These school buildings are occupied for only 8/10 hours per day

Let Government frame rules which encourage these school-buildings to turn into Call Centers after 5 pm

For a 100 seat Center , Government is planning to give a subsidy of Rs 100 lakhs

If 25 % of this subsidy is passed onto a school , it will be happy to lease out its premises to a Call Center

#   BROAD-BAND

Under ” Digital India ” program , let Union Government provide a 100 Mb broadband connection to each such ” School-cum- Call Center ” , free of cost

That will also help the students to freely access digital education content throughout the day

#   BLACK  MONEY

Launch an Amnesty Scheme under which black money is permitted to be invested into setting up such Call Centers

No questions asked as to the source . No penalty to be paid . No income tax on earnings for 10 years

There can be no better way to put these money to a mainstream and productive use !

All that debate of ” Rewarding ” the tax-evaders while ” Penalizing ” the honest tax payers , is merely academic

India’s problems are unlikely to be solved by academicians !

These can be solved , only by pragmatists  !

Luck happens when ” preparedness ” meets ” opportunity ”

My suggestions will prepare us to make 21st Century , an Indian Century !

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hemen  parekh

27  July  2015

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Building Castles in Air ?

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Somewhere I read :

”  It is alright to build castles in air , as long as you know how to place a foundation underneath , later on  ”

Here are some examples of castles that our Governments have built ( – in air ? ) , recently :

CASTLES

Government  /  No of houses to be built / Period / Ave No per day

#   Maharashtra  /  1.1 Million  /  2015 – 20  /  602 per day

#   Gujarat         /  5  Million   /  2013 – 18   /   2,740 per day

#   Centre         /   20  Million  /  2015 – 22  /  7,827  per day

I assume that it will take , at least  ONE YEAR  to organize :

#  Land

Find / acquire , thousands of vacant plots all over State / Country

#   Funds

Arrange loans / borrowings as follows :

*  Maharashtra……………  Rs  1,00,000  Crores

*  Gujarat………………….. Rs  5,00,000  Crores

*  All India…………………. Rs  20,00,000  Crores

#  Contractors

Invite tenders / negotiate / sign building contracts with hundreds of really    big contractors , who can mobilize billions of rupees worth of construction    machinery , crores of rupees of working capital and lakhs of manpower

So , if ONE year is lost before construction starts , then the ” Average Number of houses to be built per day ” will substantially go up from above mentioned figures

I leave it to you to work out how many houses ( – 500 sq ft flats ? ) will need to be built EVERY HOUR  !

FOUNDATION

Invite WinSun Decoration Design Engineering Company of China , to bring its 3D house printing technology to India , by setting up 100 factories for pre-fabricating 3D printed houses

Then leave it to thousands of small builders to ” Assemble ”  on site , a few thousands houses each, on a ” Rate Contract ” basis

Both , in ” Pre-fabrication ”  and in ” On site Assembly ” , mass production is the only foundation !

Why   WinSun  ?

#    On 29 March 2014 , WinSun constructed TEN , 3D printed houses ( 200 sq meter each ) in Shanghai , each costing $ 4,800 ( approx Rs 3 lakh ! )

#    On 17 July 2015 , using its 3D printing technology , WinSun built a 2 storey villa , in just 3 HOURS  !

#    WinSun holds 98 patents for construction materials

#    For 3D printing of houses , WinSun , mostly uses recycled construction materials

#    3D house-printing technology saves,

*  30% -60 % of building materials

*  70 % of production time

*  80 %  of construction cost

#   Egypt Government has placed on WinSun , an order for supplying 20,000 pre-fabricated , 3D printed houses

#   In Egypt , WinSun will establish 12 Dream Factories ( to build pre-fabricated houses ) , within 2 years

These factories will mostly use desert sand as its main construction material , which was found ideal for 3D printing of houses !

#   In next 3 years , WinSun will set up ( in JV with local parties ) , similar factories in 20 countries , including Saudi Arabia , UAE , Qatar , Mexico , S. Korea , Russia , Morocco , Tunisia , and USA

It is high time , we implement  ” Look East ” policy of Shri Narendra Modi-ji

I hope this suggestion will reach the people responsible for building those castles in air !

And , I hope Senior Executives of all the big Construction Companies of India ( L&T / Godrej / Tata / Shapoorji Pallonji / Shirke / Mahindra / Gammons / HCC etc ) will take the next flight to China !

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hemen  parekh

26  July  2015

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IF YOU CANNOT LICK THEM ; JOIN THEM

E-lala CAIT

CAIT stands for Confederation of All India Traders

It has over 4.5 million retailers as its members

Till a few weeks back , CAIT was opposed to e-commerce in retail trade

But when it realized that the e-Commerce tide was unstoppable , it decided to join it !

Recently , CAIT General Secretary , Khandelwal said :

” E-commerce is a reality. We cannot be blind to it. Through ‘e-Lala’, our aim is to retain consumers who were traditionally with brick-and-mortar outlets but are now shifting away to online stores

We are being forced by circumstances to get into this. We have to move with the times ”

By October 2015 , CAIT plans to launch its own e-Commerce portal ” e-Lala” to take on the likes of Amazon / Flipkart / Snapdeal / Myntra etc

But unlike these existing e-Commerce portals , CAIT does not have a war-chest of billions of dollars , to

>   Set up Fulfillment Centers ( Warehouses ) all over the country

>   Advertise online / offline , in a big way

But when you have 4.5 million Fulfillment Centers ( of course small ) , spread all over the entire country , covering every street , then why do you need to build central warehouses ?

And when 10 million delivery boys / girls , deliver a billion packages every day to millions of households , with a plastic bag / card-box carton that reads ” YOUR  e-LALA DELIVERY  ” , then why do you need to waste money on advertising  ?

Now the bad news :

>   How will e-Lala control the quality of products being delivered by 4.5     million retailers  ?

>   How will it ensure timely delivery  ?

>   How will it ensure that Member-Retailers do not overcharge ?

>   Existing e-Commerce portals buy in bulk , directly from the         manufacturers ; then offer heavy discounts over the printed MRP .

How will e-Lala counter this  ?

>  Today , barely 5 % of the retail buyers , pay thru Credit Cards . 95 % pay in cash

If e-Lala insists on advance payment using Credit Card thru a online Payment Gateway , will this put-off buyers from using e-Lala portal  ?

Again , today , almost all buyers pay ” Cash Against Delivery ” to their neighborhood retailer.

They may not like to pay in advance of the delivery !

>   To- day, buyers do refuse to accept deliveries for various reasons , such as :

#   Wrong product or labeling or package size or brand

#   Expiry date exceeded or about to expire

#   Even , change of mind !

All because , there is no online advance payment , and nothing is lost by refusing !

>  To-day , buyers are even able to return the purchased goods to their neighborhood retailer , a couple of days later.

And the retailer usually accepts the ” Return ” , in order to retain the

client on a long-term basis – a client whom , he knows personally !

This will not be easy to duplicate in E-Lala ecosystem !

This is not to say that CAIT’s e-Lala experiment is doomed  !

If anything , e-Lala would do well to think through these issues , then provide answers thru a FAQ page on its e-com web site

And in order to crystallize this thinking , it may not be too late even now , for CAIT to host: TRUE / FALSE : YES/ NO : MULTIPLE CHOICE : online Questionnaires , on its existing web site

One questionnaire for the End-Consumers  and another one for its 4.5 million member retailers

In today’s ” Dog it Dog ” world of e-commerce , one can neither dictate nor predict , a competitor’s actions

That kind of wishful thinking just does not work

To stay two steps ahead of the Competitors , you need to think and decide :

”  What am I going to do this morning ? ”

hemen  parekh

25  July  2015

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WILL YOU HELP MSME EXPORT ?

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A recently released report by Google + Deloitte is titled :

” Connected Small Business : Unlocking India’s Digital Potential ”

If India’s 30 million MSME get connected digitally , the report sees following changes in MSME eco-system :

>   Growth      –  revenues could grow up to 27 %

>   Job Creation     –  employment could grow up to 84 %

>   Innovation     –  New product offering could go up to 450 %

>   Morale     –  employee satisfaction could go up by 600 %

>   Productivity   employee collaboration could go up by 900 %

>   Exports     –  access to International Markets could go up by 65 %

Talking of exports by MSME , I wish report  had mentioned the following annual average export values by :

>  Singapore MSME………… $ 6,700,000

>  Indian MSME……………..  $       4,000

Can ” Digital Connectivity ” help Indian MSME to boost their exports ? If yes , then  by how much ?

That would depend upon our MSMEs to be able to compose a Marketing Message , such as follows and then blast it to the Foreign Importers :

>  I exist and this is where ( Email ID / Phone No ) you can reach me

>  These are my products / services ( attaching photo / video to message )

>  Here are my FOB prices for you to compare with your current suppliers

Then blast it to 8,000 + International Chambers of Commerce ( located in 5,332 cities around the World ), requesting the Chamber Presidents to forward their message to their 8,000,000 Member Firms !

They would be happy to oblige

http://www.B2BmessageBlaster.com ( B2B ) , will deliver such a message to those 8,000 + International Chambers , within 24 hours

And a MSME would need no more than ONE HOUR to blast it !

You can help MSME exports to go up by 100 % within one year , by just telling them about http://www.B2BmessageBlaster.com ( B2B ) !

B2B is their ” Digital Connection ” to International Buyers

Help them announce to the World : Here I come  !

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hemen parekh

24 July 2015

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Close in India ?

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Writing in Hindustan Times ( 23 July 2015 ) , Timsy Jaipuria

provides following information about Scooters India Ltd (SIL) :

*   SIL employs 1000 persons

*   Incurred losses from 2002 to 2012

*   Given Rs 200 crore revival package in 2013

*   Expected to make loss in 2015

*   Government could not find a buyer for SIL in2011

*   If SIL fails to revive , Government will try to divest again

All of these reminded me of the following letter that I wrote to 7,500 employees of L&T Powai Works ( individual copies in English and Marathi ), some 30 years back :

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28 Feb 1986

Dear Friends :

FLOGGING A DYING HORSE

The correct  idiom is  “flogging a dead  horse” but  there is every possibility that  the horse ( Scooters India )  is dead by now.

This is because  the enclosed article ( Dying Horse ) about  SIL  is almost 18 months old.

And  as of  Dec.  31, 1985,  we have  such  93,282 dying  (or dead?)  horses in  our  country.

These are  known as  ” Sick Units ”

What  I do not  know is whether  the above mentioned figure  includes  public-sector ( Govt.  owned ) sick-units  or not.

Most of  these are sick – in fact VERY SICK.  If you wish to know how “sick”, here are some  “temperature-readings” :

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Government Unit ( PSU )………. Loss in last 3 years ( Rs Crores )

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1. Engineering Projects India Ltd. (EPI)……………90
2. Hindustan Steelworks Const. Ltd. (HSCL)……….67
3. Cycle Corporation of India Ltd. (CCIL)…………   8.8
4. Scooters India Ltd. (SIL)…………………………  50
5. Tanneries & Footwear Corp. of India Ltd.(TAFCO)..5

I  understand   that  the  Govt.   is  planning   to  wind-up (close-down) the  first  3 units  and merge  the  remaining 2 units with some successful public or private sector company.

From the  “Dying Horse” article, we  find that neither  Bajaj nor HMT wants to even touch Scooters India !

And no  wonder

A similar  company in America  would perhaps employ  500 persons whereas Scooters India  has employed 3500 persons .

Reminds me of Bombay Municipality !

IBMC can sack (terminate/retrench)  half  of  its  employees,  productivity would go up FOUR TIMES!

If you  do not believe me, next time stop  and count  the number of  persons  pretending to  dig a hole for a faulty telephone cable !

And  talking surplus  labour  (?)  HSCL  has  12000 !  ( See following article )

How long before some of us muster enough courage to ask

“Am I my brother’s keeper?”

H C Parekh

General Manager ( Powai )

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It seems , since I wrote the above-listed letter , things have not changed ! May be the ” Industrial Sickness ” has spread

May be we need to launch another initiative called , ” Close in India ”  !

And permitting 100 % FDI in sick units could be another ” Out of Box ” solution worth considering  ! Nothing to lose but something to gain

And , the beauty is , no political party will oppose such ” Privatization ” !

—  hemen  parekh

23  July  2015

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