Over the past few weeks , we saw many surveys re: which political party will win how many Lok Sabha seats
These included , Times Now-ORG / CNN-IBN-CSDS / Headlines Today – Cicero / ABP News-Nielsen / News 24 – Today’s Chanakya / Cvoter – India TV etc
Although , ” Today’s Chanakya ” came closest to predicting the number of seats that NDA might win , others too were fairly accurate
Using statistical techniques , they computed the Chance ( Probability ) for each party , based on asking a few thousands voters ( sample ) , their preferences
Now is the time to survey the voters , once again , as to what do they believe , when it comes to BJP fulfilling its poll promises
For each item ( of BJP’s poll manifesto ) , what is the perceived chance ( probability ) that the BJP Government will fulfill / deliver on its promises ? Will it be 10 % – 50 % – 100 % ?
The outcome will determine BJP’s credibility among voters , vis-a-vis , its poll promises
It may be even an eye-opener for BJP !
If conducted and results published by end June 2014 , such a survey might even become a ” Self Fulfilling Prophesy ” !
If it turns out less-than-flattering , BJP will work twice as hard to prove the pollsters wrong !
Here are the ” Chances ” which I attach to fulfillment of each of BJP’s following poll promises , by the end of 3rd year :
* Ensure minimization of Black Money and setting up of a Task Force .. ( 50 % )
* Special Courts to stop hoarding and black-marketing. ( 100 %)
* Set-up a Price-Stabilization Fund…….( 100 % )
* Develop labour-intensive Manufacturing … ( 10 % )
* Empowering youth for Self-Employment… ( 25 % )
* Transforming Employment Exchanges to Career Centers(10% )
* Eliminating corruption thru E-Governance… ( 10 % )
* Rationalization / Simplification of Tax-regime.. ( 20 % )
* Insulate intelligence agencies from political intervention and interference(10%)
* Strengthening physical infrastructure with expediting work on freight and Industrial Corridors….. ( 15 % )
* Setting up Gas-Grids and National Optical Fiber Network up to the village level……. ( 30 % )
* Quadrilateral project for Bullet Trains….. ( 5 % )
* Establishment of National E – Library….. ( 40 % )
* Implementation of National Education Policy .. ( 50 % )
* Evolving further the PPP model to PPPP model .. ( 50 % )
* Building 100 Mega-Cities……………. ( 0 % )
Did I miss out any ?
Parallel with whatever the Pollsters may – or may not – do , it would be worthwhile for BJP Tech-Team , to come out with a mobile App ( to be named , ” RUN – Rate Us Now ” ? ), to find out what voters feel , on a 5 star scale Or , an App that would let the voters prioritize among various promises
* hemen parekh ( 19 May 2014 / Mumbai )